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Elusive Search for the Bottom: Housing Market Update

A lot of people around me, especially those focused on buying real estate as an investment in this historically challenging real estate market, are obsessed with when US home prices will “bottom out”. I believe people sometimes focus on finding the lowest home price at the expense of other equally important economic factors such as the cost of construction/”fixing the place” and financing costs…both of which are at historic lows right now, and thought I’d share some of the latest news/information relevant to this topic:

1. The general consensus of economists (this is available from several media sources) is that home prices, which have already tumbled 20% from their peak three years ago, will probably sink another 10% before stabilizing.

2. Per a Wall Street Journal article on October 29, 2008 (see below for an excerpt, and a link to the article), the consensus at a National Association of Home Builders conference recently was that “home prices will bottom out as early as the middle of next year (2009)”.

3. Finally, there were several articles this past week discussing the troubled mortgage modification plan the FDIC has implemented at Indymac since they took management control in July. The FDIC is proposing implementing this type of plan at a much broader level nationally to reduce the total number of foreclosures in the future. I agree that foreclosures are generally bad for everyone involved (including the homeowner and the lender)….and the more that’s done to avoid them systematically, the better. I also believe addressing this issue will help home prices “find their bottom”. While the White House has not made a decision on the FDIC backed proposal yet (and likely won’t till we have a new President), JP Morgan announced over the weekend that it is launching a similar program which should help prevent foreclosure for about 400,000 homeowners. All this is good news from a housing finding its bottom standpoint.

I won’t take an official position on when the market will bottom as I believe it’s already a great time for folks with a long term investment horizon to invest in real estate. And as a wise person once said: “you only know the market bottomed once it’s too late (i.e., once it’s started rising again). But here’s some thoughts on what the above could mean for you:

Selling: If you’re a current homeowner….this is generally not a good time to sell….so unless you believe you must sell for financial or other life reasons (e.g., job change), hold off on selling the real estate you own currently. The key caveat here is if you think you’re going to need to sell in the next 24 months or so. If this is the case, I would consider selling now as you’ll likely maximize your home value by selling today vs. in the near future.

Buying: If you’re thinking about buying for living or investment purposes, then the key is to have a long time horizon (e.g., 5 years or longer). For folks who fall into this category, I believe it’s a good time to start looking at possible opportunities including foreclosures.

Key Recent Articles:

Economists Predict Home Prices Will Bottom Next Year (WSJ, 10/29/08)
When will housing’s sickening slide stop?
According to economists at the semi-annual National Association of Home Builders forecast conference, not soon—though the end is in sight. The consensus: Home prices will bottom out as early as the middle of next year.
I’ve been attending these conferences for years, and last spring’s was the gloomiest I’d ever attended. The latest conference, held last week, was also downbeat, but with a glimmer of hope—many of the economists seemed optimistic that the government’s bailout plan, which includes buying toxic mortgage debt, will lead to housing’s recovery. More affordable prices, pent-up demand, incentives on new homes, fewer housing starts and expected declines in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages also should help ease the crisis, said David Seiders, chief economist of the trade group.
For the rest of the article, click here (you may need a WSJ subscription to read the full article): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122522301876377101.html

Massive Effort to Save Mortgages (WSJ, 11/01/08)
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. launched an ambitious plan Friday to modify the terms of $70 billion in mortgages for borrowers who are behind on their payments or soon could be.
The move by the New York bank will cover as many as 400,000 borrowers. They’ll be moved into loans carrying lower interest rates, smaller principal amounts or other more-affordable terms.
For the rest of the article, click here (you may need a WSJ subscription to read the full article): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122549543952589677.html

FDIC Plan Tests Limits of Leniency (WSJ, 11/01/08)
When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. seized control of IndyMac Bancorp — the nation’s 10th-largest mortgage lender by loan volume — the agency vowed to ease terms for many of its troubled borrowers. In doing so, the FDIC wanted to show the mortgage industry how it could slash home foreclosures by making decisions both sensible and humane.
For the rest of the article, click here (you may need a WSJ subscription to read the full article): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122548504641688959.html

One simple idea for ending price discrimination in health care

2 women walk into a hospital with acute stomach pain. One is a highly paid lawyer at a top law firm who is covered by her company’s health insurance plan and the other is a working class American without health insurance. Both women get the exact same diagnostic tests and medical care, and both stay in the hospital for the exact same number of nights. Do the two women pay the same amount for the health care they consume (in total, including payments made by the insurance company on behalf of the lawyer who has health insurance)? Likely not, if the above happens in the USA.

Does this make any sense? I believe the answer is clearly no….and yet this unfair practice has been allowed to go on for decades….and is still going on today. The reason for this is that insurance companies in America directly negotiate “bulk pricing” directly with hospitals and other healthcare providers. This pricing is usually significantly lower than the “list price” of a product or service. However, when an individual (e.g., uninsured worker, foreign national, etc.) who is paying for their health care expenses out of pocket walks into a health care provider, they pay the “list price”. It’s ironic that this leads to price discrimination against the same (generally poorer) individuals who couldn’t afford health insurance in the first place.

So here’s a simple solution for ending health care price discrimination in America: Mandate that every hospital or health service provider can only charge uninsured individuals the average of the pricing they have negotiated with their health insurance companies. This would eliminate much pain and suffering….and right a basic wrong in our health care system today.

November 1, 2008 Update:

Today, I received an “Explanation of Benefits” Statement from my health insurance provider which I think proves my point above:

Service Date: October 16, 2008
Type of Service: Outpatient Services (a generic term to say this is for a minor outpatient procedure performed about 2 weeks ago)
Total Billed (to health insurance company): $5,665
Patient Savings: $4,767
Coinsurance Copayment Amount: $89.80
Claims Payment: $808.20

In other words, the total cost to the insured party (in this case me) and the insurance company was $898…or 16% of the amount billed. So we saved $4,767 for only one reason: we had the insurance company negotiating with the provider, auditing the bill etc.

GM, France and Albany

I couldn’t agree more with the conclusions and similarities this article from today’s Wall Street Journal draws about unions. If organizations can’t fire easily, they definitely don’t hire easily. Did you know that Michigan had the lowest rate of home price appreciation of all 50 US states last year? This theme also rings true in the Indian context….labor reform is key to a vibrant future India. I, personally, have observed the impact of unions on 2 of my former clients. At a mining client, we had a really tough time implementing pay for performance on the front line…as unions are generally anti performance based differentiation (which I’m definitely for!). At a hospital client, I saw how expenses grew uncontrollably due to unions…forcing prices up and/or profits down (usually into the red).

Here’s the article:

At first glance, they seem to have little in common. But the riots in France over labor reform, the slow-motion suicide of General Motors, and the continuing decline of the New York economy all share one defining trait: entrenched and unchangeable union power.

These columns have always favored the right to collectively bargain, and any private company that allows a union to organize its workers deserves what it gets. But that doesn’t mean we should fail to appreciate the consequences when unions become entrenched inside any organization. On the evidence throughout business and politics today, unions do not provide individual job or income security. On the contrary, they undermine security by contributing to broader business and economic decline.

At the national level, the French example is clear enough. While the French private sector is less unionized than America’s, it must cope with mandated work rules that make it all but impossible to fire someone; so naturally companies are also reluctant to hire. The jobless rate is double America’s, while youth unemployment is 23%. More significant is that the political clout of public-sector unions has blocked all but minor changes in these rules. Public-sector workers account for more than a quarter of the entire French work force (6.4 million of out 24.6 million), and their salaries and pensions made up 45% of the entire state budget as recently as 2003.

Is General Motors Unraveling? The current French protests are in response to a modest change that would allow employers to fire people under age 26 more easily. So entrenched has the politics of union entitlement become in France that even at the onset of their careers these young protesters are demanding security over opportunity. In the global economy, this means they will end up with less of both.

France remains a wealthy country, and its economic decline can be masked for a time as it lives off accumulated capital. But already the promises that its unions have extracted from the government seem unlikely to be kept. A growth rate of between 1% and 2% a year won’t be enough to finance the pensions and health care of an aging nation. And facing up to those facts will require an increasingly painful political reckoning.

* * *
Here in the U.S., the same burden is slowly crippling New York, once a bulwark of American industry. Power in the state capital of Albany is shared by Republicans and Democrats. But both parties bow before the public-sector unions, especially the teachers, and the health-care workers led by perhaps the most powerful man in the state, Dennis Rivera.

Thanks to his political clout, New York’s Medicaid costs are higher than those of Texas and Florida combined; a health-care insurance premium for a young family of four is roughly six times what it is across the border in Connecticut; and high-deductible health-savings accounts that can help the self-employed afford insurance can’t even be offered in the state. New York is also a rare state that actually taxes private health insurance, to the tune of about $2.4 billion a year.

Another union-driven business cost is workers’ compensation, and in New York the average cost per claim is second highest in the nation (after Louisiana) and 72% higher than the national average. Governor George Pataki has proposed a reform that would lower costs while actually raising the average payout for the truly disabled, but he’s run up against a French-like union roadblock in the legislature.

Thanks to immigration, as well as America’s continuing advantage in financial services, New York City has so far been able to avoid another fiscal collapse of the kind it had in the 1970s. But upstate is a different story, with jobs and young people fleeing to better business climes. New York manufacturing employment fell by 41% between 1990 and 2005, or double the national rate.

Even Eliot Spitzer recently referred to upstate New York as “Appalachia.” Alas, the Attorney General shows no sign of understanding that the heart of the problem lies in Albany. One reason he hasn’t pursued the state’s rampant Medicaid fraud with any vigor is because it would get him crosswise with Mr. Rivera.

As for GM, its management mistakes are legion and its weak product line well-known. But the root of its problem is that it long ago became a corporate version of the welfare state, with the same entrenched union interests. Yes, as a private company it has had to answer to shareholders. But the size of its market dominance going back to its heyday 40 years ago allowed its managers to avoid confronting its uncompetitive wages, benefits and work rules even as they saw Toyota and Honda gaining in the rearview mirror.

In retrospect, GM management should have provoked a union showdown. Yet only a very brave CEO would have been willing to risk a potentially catastrophic strike on his watch for the sake of making the company more competitive after he retired. In any case, would the United Auto Workers really have budged? In 1998, young executive and future CEO Rick Wagoner endured a 54-day UAW wildcat strike at two plants in Flint, Michigan, after GM had tried to change some production rules. The strike shut down most GM production in North America and cost the company some $2 billion. In the end GM caved and the UAW escaped, having made virtually no concessions.

Even now at auto-parts maker Delphi — which is already in Chapter 11 — the UAW is declaring it will take a strike that could destroy both Delphi and GM rather than agree to Delphi’s proposed job cuts and work changes. As in France and New York, these union leaders would rather sink the company than make concessions that would reduce their own power.

This pattern has repeated itself again and again — in the steel and textile industries attacked by foreign competition, or the unionized grocery chains routed by Wal-Mart. The union answer has rarely been to work with a company to allow more job flexibility to become more competitive. The answer has typically been to seek a ruinous strike or lobby for political intervention that might stave off disaster for at best a few more years.

We recount all this because, even amid GM’s decline and France’s economic turmoil, most of America’s liberal elites refuse to draw the right lesson. They cling to the belief that if only the Democrats can retake Congress, or the union movement can once again organize more of the American labor force, the old economy of union-backed job security and egalité will return. Or, worse, they propose seceding from global competition via protectionism. It is all a delusion. Down that road lies France — a nice place to vacation, but you wouldn’t want to work there.

If you don’t know it, you can’t fix it? Unsexy but critical: Data/Metrics

I was reading an article about the french riots and the core liberal philosophy underlying french society and government. The french believe (rightly) that all people are equal and that race, color, ethnicity shouldn’t matter. As a result, they don’t measure any of their social outcomes by race, color or ethnicity.

No data on whether there are particular ethnic or racial segments of society that are having major problems? No way to fix these problems. If you’ve read the papers at all in the last few weeks, you know what I’m talking about.

Not sexy, but true (to me anyways). You achieve what you articulate and focus on. You fix problems you see. You improve metrics you measure and report regularly.

So why the hell is this the subject of a blog? Well, I’m not sure this is going to be a crowd-puller, but I was reading an article my boss sent me from the Wall Street Journal and I’m feeling validated (enough to share anyways!). The article is about Michael Walker, founder of the Fraser institute in Canada. A few snippets from the article which I totally agree with:

“A debate about government policy isn’t likely to be settled around values. But when there is objective measurement, resolution emerges”

“The dirty little secret of Canada’s single payer health system: that care is rationed through time rather than price”

“I firmly believe that you become what you think about, and that is as true for countries as it is for individuals”

Knowledge Creation

I just received my latest edition of the McKinsey Quarterly, a pretty interesting business journal mailed regularly to me by my former employer. I get about 6 a year, which I loyally place on a bookshelf at home for future knowledge seeking moments. But this one caught my attention: Fulfilling India’s Promise.

The various articles analyze (and offer a ton of facts about) many business/economic aspects of India: the view of foreign and indian executives, the indian consumer, marketing to the masses, when to make india a manufacturing base, india’s offshoring future, reforming india’s financial system, securing india’s energy needs, an interview with manmohan singh (the prime minister) on india’s economic agenda. the recommendations in the aggregate could transform the economy i.e., the lives of the population!

The sheer power of the knowledge creation I was witnessing amazed me. Echoing Gotham’s recent optimistic post, although problems do sometimes seem to abound, there are some things that are amazing about what’s going on in this new, developing, evolving world of ours!

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